Container freight now costs roughly twice what it did in February. Jefferies puts global rates at about $4,000–4,500 per box this month, against $2,000–2,500 before the US–Iran war began. Ships are running late, the Gulf is still dangerous (as the loss of GFS Pride showed last week), and the busiest booking period of the year is coming.
None of that is in your control. How you book, insure and plan around it is. Here is what we are telling our own customers.
1. Check your insurance before your next shipment
If your cargo is lost at sea, the shipping line's liability is limited by the bill of lading, and war risks are usually excluded. What protects you is your own cargo policy. Ask your insurer two plain questions: is war risk covered on this voyage, and does that include transshipment through the Gulf? Many standard policies say no unless you add it. If you buy on CFR terms, insurance is your job, not the seller's.
2. Know exactly how your cargo is routed
A lot of Pakistan cargo still moves through Jebel Ali on a feeder, even when the main voyage never goes near the Gulf. Ask your forwarder for the full routing, not just the port of loading and the destination. Where there is a choice, a direct service or a transshipment via Colombo or Salalah keeps the box out of Hormuz. For Europe, services like MSC's restored Karachi–Europe service are worth comparing.
3. Book two to three weeks ahead
With fewer sailings and more blank sailings, the late booker pays the most and gets rolled first. Book early, and confirm the cut-off date with the factory before the cargo leaves the gate. A missed cut-off now often means waiting a week, not a day.
4. Get the full rate in writing
Quotes are being issued with short validity, and surcharges come and go at short notice. Before you confirm, ask:
- Which surcharges are included: war risk, emergency bunker, peak season?
- Until what date is the rate valid, and is that tied to the sailing date or the booking date?
- Have any increases already been announced for November or December?
Our guide to 2026 surcharges explains each one.
5. Promise realistic dates, and check your LC
In September only 27% of ships worldwide arrived on time, according to Xeneta, and the average delay was six days. From the Far East to Europe it was almost ten. Add a buffer when you give your buyer a delivery date. If you export on a letter of credit, check the latest shipment date and expiry now. An amendment before the ship sails is easy. After it sails, it gets expensive.
Europe-bound cargo may get some relief as lines move services back through Suez, but don't count on the shorter route until it has held for a while.
6. Importing from China? Book before Chinese New Year
Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027. Factories close for two to three weeks, and the weeks before are the busiest of the year. If you need stock in March, place the order and book space in December. Our note on how Chinese New Year affects shipping covers the timeline.
7. Don't add port charges on top
With freight this expensive, a few days of demurrage at Karachi or Port Qasim is money you can still save. Have the documents and the GD ready before the ship arrives, agree free days with the line upfront, and return the empty on time. Our demurrage vs detention explainer shows how the charges are counted.
Quick answers
How much have container freight rates risen in 2026?
Roughly doubled. Global rates went from about $2,000–2,500 per container in February to about $4,000–4,500 in October, according to Jefferies.
Are war risk surcharges charged on Pakistan cargo?
It depends on the routing. Some carriers exclude the Arabian Sea, so direct Pakistan services are often spared, while cargo moving through Gulf ports usually pays. Always ask what your quote includes.
How far ahead should I book sea freight right now?
Two to three weeks for most lanes, and earlier for China imports ahead of Chinese New Year on 6 February 2027.
Is it safer to avoid Jebel Ali transshipment?
For cargo that doesn't need to go to the Gulf, yes, where a direct or Colombo/Salalah option exists. It may cost a little more but keeps the box out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Have a shipment planned for the next two months? Send it to us and we'll check the routing, the cover and the rate with you.
Sources: Jefferies via India Shipping News · Xeneta via Tradlinx · Flexport · Freightos